Twentieth report : transport and the environment--developments since 1994 / Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution ; presented to Parliament by Command of Her Majesty, September 1997.

  • Great Britain. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution.
Date:
1997
Catalogue details

Licence: Open Government Licence

Credit: Twentieth report : transport and the environment--developments since 1994 / Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution ; presented to Parliament by Command of Her Majesty, September 1997. Source: Wellcome Collection.

    160/168 (page 148)
    E.5 It is estimated that nitrogen oxides emissions reductions in the region of 48-62% on 1995 levels would be needed to secure the consistent achievement of the objective for nitrogen dioxide by the year 2005. Standards already in place and other abatement measures are likely to achieve reductions of around 42% relative to 1995 levels by 2010. Introduction of stage III vehicle emission limits and fuel specifications for 2000-01 are expected to achieve reductions of around 45-47% in urban nitrogen oxides emissions by the earlier date of 2005. This is the bulk of the reduction needed but it is estimated that there will be a shortfall in the forecast emissions reduction of around 5—10% or more. E.6 Instruments for the control of ozone precursors are in place at national and European level. The UK is committed to action under both United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and Nitrogen Protocols and European Community (EC) Directives on vehicle emission limits and fuel quality. The government expects that the reduction in total emissions of VOCs will be almost 40% in 2005 measured against 1988 levels. Similarly, emissions of nitrogen oxides are expected to have fallen by 40-45% over the same period (a different base year and time-scale are used to the reduction estimates in E.5). Methods of estimating the effects of these reductions on the scale of summertime ozone incidents are still in their infancy. However, despite considerable scientific uncertainties that remain, it is clear that summertime incidents in the UK cannot be contained unless there is action across Europe. Reductions of VOCs and nitrogen oxides emissions in the range 50-70% relative to the present day would significantly reduce the extent to which the national objective and the EC ozone alert threshold are exceeded. E.7. It is estimated that reductions in PMy, emissions from vehicles of 61-67% on 1995 levels are needed to secure the consistent achievement of the objective by the year 2005. Projections based on current policies amount to a decrease in emissions of over 40% by 2005 compared to 1995. This should lead to significantly lower levels of particulates in air, which will be particularly reflected in wintertime pollution episodes, and go far towards reducing exceedances of the objective but still represents a considerable shortfall in required emission reductions. References I The United Kingdom National Air Quality Strategy. Department of the Environment, The Scottish Office and The Welsh Office. CM 3587. TSO. March 1997.