Some remarks on the value and necessity of the numerical or statistical method of inquiry as applied to various questions in operative surgery / by J.Y. Simpson.

  • Simpson, James Young, 1811-1870.
Date:
1848
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Licence: Public Domain Mark

Credit: Some remarks on the value and necessity of the numerical or statistical method of inquiry as applied to various questions in operative surgery / by J.Y. Simpson. Source: Wellcome Collection.

Provider: This material has been provided by The University of Glasgow Library. The original may be consulted at The University of Glasgow Library.

    11/30 (page 5)
    Thied Proposition.—The absolute number of those that recover, should, easterns paribus, be as fixed as the number of those that die from individual diseases in a given time, in a given population.—Tlie preced- ing table (No. 11.) sliows liow many died of the scA^eral affections included under it, dm^ng a succession of years. If our statistics were more specific and detailed, we ought to be able to tell also how many recovered each year fi:om attacks of each of these affections, as well as how many died fi-om them ; and if we could thus count the number of recoveries as well as the number of deaths, by strildng the propor- tion between them, we would obtain the average mortality of each chsease. The deaths, for instance, fi'om croup, amount on an average to 4325 each year. But if at the same time we knew the total average number of cases of croup that occmTcd every year (say, for the sake of illustration, that they amounted to 13,000 in all), then the mor- tality of the disease would amount to nearly 1 in 3 ; or out of every three patients attacked with croup, two would recover and one die. The Eegistrar's reports, however, do not furnish us with returns of the recoveries as well as of the deaths in any special disease or compli- cation, \vith one exception. Under the division of births he gives the number of childi'en born each year, and mider the term chilabirth, in the division of deaths he gives the number of mothers who perished each year under partmition or its consequences. Being thus fur- nished not only with the annual total nmnber of deaths that took place fi'om partmition, but also mth the annual total number of cases caprice. But this is not what we in reality observe, at least for that class of actions of which we have succeeded in obtaining a registry. I shall quote but a single example; but it merits the attention of all philosophic minds. In every thing which relates to crimes, the same numbers are reproduced so con- stantly that it becomes impossible to misapprehend it—even in respect to those crimes which seem perfectly beyond human foresight, such as murders com- mitted in general at the close of quarrels, arising without a motive, and under other circumstances to all appearance fortuitous or accidental. Nevertheless, experience proves that murders are committed annually, not only pretty nearly to the same extent, but even that the instruments employed are in the same proportions.—Treatise on Man, p. 6. The following table, abridged from Quetelet, may enforce still more the truth of his observations. Table of the Annual Total Number of Murders, and Instruments of Murder, in France, collected from the Reports of CriminalJustice,from 1826 to 1831. Modes of Murder. In 1826. In 1827. In 1828. In 1829. In 1830. In 1831, Total Number of Murders, . . 241 234 227 231 206 266 By Gun and Pistol, .... 6G G4 GO Gl 67 88 By Knife, 39 40 34 46 44 34 20 20 21 21 11 'J 28 12 21 23 17 26 By Cudgel, Cane, &c., . . . 23 28 31 24 J2 21 By Stabs, Cuts, and Bruises, . 35 40 42 45 46 49 By other means, 40 30 18 11 20 39 The difference in 1830 and 1831 from the preceding four years were no doubt owing, i a great degree, to the Revolution of 1830, and its immediate effects. '