[Report of the Medical Officer of Health for Dagenham].

  • Dagenham (London, England). Urban District Council.
Date:
[1928]
Catalogue details

Licence: Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)

Credit: [Report of the Medical Officer of Health for Dagenham]. Source: Wellcome Collection.

    19/56 (page 13)
    13 a knowledge of the actual distribution of the population in their respective age and sex groups, a piece of information which will not be available until a census is taken. The very low figure of the Recorded Death Rate is of course due to the unusual distribution of age and possibly to some extent of sex. Ordinarily 60% of total deaths occur in persons over the age of 50. In this district this age group is poorly represented as yet and this accounts for the deficiency of deaths per 1,000 population. It is recognised that the mortality of a population where there is a large excess of births over deaths will be lower than that of a stationary population, unless emigration causes any great changes. Also that newly settled communities and particularly rapidly growing towns have a low death rate. As long as the estate continues to grow the death rate will favour the district owing to preponderance at these favourable ages. Against this of course, is the effect of a high birth rate which, because of the heavy death rate in the first year of life, will add to the number of deaths. But this same birth rate if continued, results in the production of a population containing a large number of persons who are at a period having a very low death rate. Each year, however, will see a number passing over the age of 50; that is, an increasing number passing into the age group with a higher-than-average mortality instead of being in the group with a lower-than-average mortality. This will mean a slowly rising death rate. This influence will probably not be apparent until the influx into the growing estate ceases, as until then, the effect will be over-balanced by the other factors making more strongly for a low death rate. On cessation of expansion, however, the death rate for this district will probably slowly rise until the age distribution of the area becomes normal. This, theoretically, will not be until some 40 years after the cessation of influx into the district, by which time the deficiency in the age group 15 to 24 has been removed by those particular persons passing through their successive age groups until removed by their death. Before this time, there will be other disturbing factors to alter the age distribution, even to such an extent as to adversely affect the death rate. At some future date it is probable there will not be sufficient accommodation for the present children when they reach the age of adolescence. They might therefore leave the district. The loss of these people at ages which normally have a low death rate would raise the Recorded Death Rate, even possibly to a figure above that of the country as a whole.